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Housing Perspectives

Research, trends, and perspective from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

Weakening of Residential Remodeling Activity Anticipated for 2024

Annual spending for improvements and repairs to owner-occupied homes is expected to decrease at a moderate rate over the coming year, according to our latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA). The LIRA projects annual owner expenditures for home updates and maintenance to decline by 7.7 percent through the third quarter of 2024.

The ongoing weakness in the housing market caused by high interest rates and low supply of existing homes is expected to weigh on remodeling activity next year. Homeowner concerns about the health and direction of the broader economy may also dampen plans for remodeling projects.

The level of annual spending on improvements and repairs is projected to fall from $489 billion today to $452 billion over the coming four quarters. While the rate of market decline should decelerate significantly in the second part of the year, 2024 is shaping up to be a challenging year for home remodeling.

Click image for full-size chart.

Column and line chart providing quarterly historical estimates and projections of homeowner improvement and repair spending from 2020-Q4 to 2024-Q3 as four-quarter moving sums and rates of change. Year-over-year spending growth accelerated steadily from 10.6% in 2020-Q4 to 12.0% in 2021-Q4 before sharply accelerating to a peak of 17.2% in 2022-Q3; growth is projected to soften swiftly to 2.0% in 2023-Q4 before turning negative in 2024. Annual spending levels are expected to decrease by 7.7% from $489 billion in 2023-Q3 to $452 billion in 2024-Q3.

For more information, visit the LIRA page of our website.