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Housing Perspectives

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Research, trends, and perspective from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

Low-Cost Rentals Have Decreased in Every State

| Sophia Wedeen

The supply of low-cost rentals fell by 3.9 million units over the last decade, according to our latest State of the Nation’s Housing report. As a new interactive tool (Figure 1) released in conjunction with the report shows, the supply of low-cost rentals decreased in every single state, leaving lower- and middle-income renters with even fewer housing options they can afford.

Figure 1: The Supply of Low-Cost Rentals Continues to Decline

The supply of low-rent units has fallen continuously in the past decade due to rent increases in existing units, tenure conversions out of the rental stock, building condemnations, and demolitions. Adjusting for inflation, the number of units with contract rents below $600 fell from 11.9 million to 8.0 million between 2011 and 2021. A $600 rent is the maximum amount affordable to households who make $24,000 annually. Additionally, the market lost 1.5 million units with rents between $600 and $799, and 980,000 units with rents between $800 and $1,000 in the same years.  

Rent increases and high-end new construction have driven up the number of higher-cost units; the number of units renting for $1,400 or more increased by 7.8 million, to 14.5 million units in 2021. These additions combined with the declining number of low-rent units have shifted the overall distribution of rents. Between 2011 and 2021, the share of rental units offering contract rents below $600 decreased by ten percentage points, to just 17 percent of rentals, while the share renting for $1,400 increased by 16 percentage points, to 31 percent of rentals.

The decline in low-rent units was geographically widespread. Between 2011 and 2021, 45 states and the District of Columbia lost at least 20 percent of units with contract rents below $600. Among those, 23 states lost at least 30 percent of units at this rent level, and 8 states (Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Florida, and New Hampshire) lost at least 40 percent.

Many of the states with the largest declines in low-rent units were previously more affordable places in the South that have seen increasing rental demand in recent years. Texas had the largest decline of any state, losing 512,000 units with rents below $600, which was half of its low-rent stock (Figure 2). These losses came amid significant gains at the high end, including 742,000 units renting for $1,400 or more. Other states with particularly large declines in low-rent units included North Carolina (202,000 units), Georgia (159,000 units), and Tennessee (129,000 units), each of which had among the largest growth in the number of renter households of any states in the last decade, and at the same time gained large numbers of higher-rent units.

Figure 2: Texas Lost More Than Half A Million Units With Rents Under $600 Between 2011 and 2021

Texas Lost More Than Half A Million Units With Rents Under $600 Between 2011 and 2021. This bar chart shows the number of units in Texas at different rent levels in 2011 and 2021, including the units renting for less than $600, $600-800, $800-1000, $1,000-1,400, $1,400-1,999, and $2,000 and over in constant 2021 dollars. In Texas, the number of units renting for less than $1,000 fell in this time period while the number of units renting for $1,000 all increased. In 2011, the plurality of units in Texas rented for less than $600, but in 2021, the plurality rented for $1,000-$1,400.

The supply of low-rent units decreased even in affordable states that did not see rapid rental demand, including Ohio (247,000 units), Michigan (140,000 units), Missouri (120,000 units), and Indiana (114,000 units) (Figure 3). These states notably had some of the highest numbers and shares of low-cost rentals in 2011, with units renting for less than $600 ranging from 35 to 46 percent of rentals as compared to the national rate of 27 percent. These losses put housing in these previously more affordable states increasingly out of reach for lower-income households.

Figure 3: The Number of Low-Cost Rentals Decreased by Nearly 250,000 in Ohio

The Number of Low-Cost Rentals Decreased by Nearly 250,000 in Ohio. This bar chart shows the number of units in Ohio at different rent levels in 2011 and 2021, including the number renting for less than $600, $600-800, $800-1,000, $1,000-1,400, $1,400-1,999, and $2,000 and over in constant 2021 dollars. The vast majority of units in number of units rented for less than $600 in 2011, although this stock declined significantly between 2011 and 2021 while number of units at higher rent levels all increased. The plurality of units in Ohio rented for less than $600 in 2011, while in 2021 the plurality of units rented for $600-800.

In more expensive states that had fewer low-cost rentals in 2011, the losses extended higher up the rent spectrum. Nine states—California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Maryland, Washington, Virginia, and New Hampshire—had net losses in units at all rent levels up to $1,400. In California, where just 9.6 percent of units rented for less than $600 in 2011, the supply of low-rent units declined by 152,000 (Figure 4). However, California also lost an additional 633,000 units renting for between $600 and $1,000 and an astounding 677,000 units renting for $1,000-1,399 – the largest decline of any state.

Figure 4: California Lost Units At All Rent Levels Below $1,400

California Lost Units At All Rent Levels Below $1,400. This bar chart shows the number of units in California at different rent levels in 2011 and 2021, including the number renting for less than $600, $600-800, $800-1000, $1,000-1,400, $1,400-1,999, and $2,000 and over in constant 2021 dollars. The number of units renting for less than $1,400 declined between 2011 and 2021, with the largest losses in the $1,000-1,400 rent category. The number of units renting for $1,400 or more increased, with the largest growth occurring for units with rents over $2000. While the plurality of units in 2011 rented for $1,000-1,399, the plurality in 2021 rented for $2,000 or more.

The long-term decline in low-rent units is not only geographically widespread but has accelerated in recent years, contributing to worsening affordability for renters. The market lost 1.2 million units with rents below $600 between 2019 and 2021 alone, which was also a period when many lower-income renters experienced major financial setbacks. As documented in the 2023 State of the Nation’s Housing report, rising rents and stagnating renter incomes produced the highest number of cost-burdened renters on record in 2021. As the supply of low-cost units continues to decline, it will be increasingly difficult for lower-income renters to secure housing they can afford, even in areas that are relatively less expensive.