March 1, 2010
The methodology presented in working paper W07-7 is not a forecast. Instead, it is an estimate of underlying demand for new housing units over the next several years if long-term trends hold. Making such a projection requires making many assumptions. A major assumption is that markets enter and exit the projection period in a state of balance between supply and demand. Since markets are rarely in balance and were most likely highly oversupplied in 2005, for practical purposes W07-7 presents additional sensitivities to show the effect of various estimates of oversupply entering the projection period on the demand levels for 2005-2015. This addendum simply presents the baseline projection and does not show the impact of any assumed market imbalance entering 2010...
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